AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Rotterdam — Team-Based Signals
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 2-0
Sparta Rotterdam
HOL
0-1
HT 0-1
Sparta Rotterdam
HOL
2-3
HT 1-1
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
1-1
HT 0-0
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam — Actual Match Statistics
Sparta Rotterdam nicked a narrow win over AZ Alkmaar 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AZ Alkmaar at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 63% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 37%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 1.10 to 0.87.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.00 for Sparta Rotterdam.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 58%, draw 23%, Sparta Rotterdam 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.