Fortuna Sittard 1-4 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 27% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.91
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
13%
4.94
X/2
12%
6.91
X/X
13%
4.81
2/1
8%
24.3
2/2
9%
4.91
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
45%
+2.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.9pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.42/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.63
-6% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
21.7 Crosses 17.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
3W-0D-3L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.82 xG 1.09
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
243 Passes 385
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-1 HT 0-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.03.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 3-1 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
05.11.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
06.03.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
11.12.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.01.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-2 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-4
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.39 xG 1.99
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
266 Passes 390
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle swept aside Fortuna Sittard 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Sittard at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 43% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 57%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.39 to 1.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.17 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?

Fortuna Sittard 1-4 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 48%, draw 26%, PEC Zwolle 27%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✗ BTTS No
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