Atletico Nacional 4-0 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-10.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.7pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.9pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
1.53/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.26
+17% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
18.3 Crosses 12.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Once Caldas
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.98 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
330 Passes 263
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.07.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.02.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
17.07.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.01.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
14.10.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
12.05.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
4-0
AWAY Once Caldas
1.76 xG 0.28
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
399 Passes 233
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 10
9 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional cruised past Once Caldas 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 60% of the ball to Once Caldas's 40%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.76 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.00 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Atletico Nacional 4-0 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 48%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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