Estoril 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
47%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.71
Over 2.5
52%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.75
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
26%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
18.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.68
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
15.45
X/1
12%
8.08
X/2
16%
4.26
X/X
11%
4.45
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.52
2/X
6%
14.2
Value flag · 1/X at 15.45 — our 9% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
47%
Away Win
50%
-3.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
55%
-6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
45%
+6.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 54%
+9% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
1.49/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.83
+27% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
255 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 82%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
20.1 Crosses 25.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.87 xG 1.54
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
288 Passes 337
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.08.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
02.03.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-3 HT 0-3 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
01.10.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 0-2 Estoril Estoril POR
04.02.2023 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
14.08.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
23.01.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-0
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
293 Passes 396
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril edged past Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Estoril had 43% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 57%, shots finished 13-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Estoril and 2.00 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Estoril 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Estoril 27%, draw 26%, Vitoria Guimaraes 47%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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