Sporting Braga 3-0 Boavista — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.33
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.54
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.15
X/1
11%
3.76
X/2
8%
17.0
X/X
11%
7.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.25
2/2
7%
14.45
2/X
5%
23.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.25 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
71%
-13.2pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.3pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+7.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Boavista EU Bookmakers 15%
+0% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
2.19/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/2.14
-12% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
432 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 73%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.1
25.0 Crosses 12.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Boavista
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.92 xG 0.88
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
447 Passes 323
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Boavista Boavista 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
26.02.2024 Boavista Boavista 0-4 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
24.09.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 4-1 HT 2-1 Boavista Boavista POR
15.07.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista HAZ
20.05.2023 Boavista Boavista 1-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
14.01.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
3-0
AWAY Boavista
2.59 xG 0.51
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 3
523 Passes 211
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Boavista
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga ran out comfortable winners over Boavista 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 68% of the ball to Boavista's 32%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 2.59 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.33 for Boavista.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Boavista?

Sporting Braga 3-0 Boavista in the Portugal - Premier League on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Boavista?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 57%, draw 23%, Boavista 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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