Porto 1-1 Santa Clara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 26 Jan 2025

Porto
1-1 HT 0-1
Santa Clara
📅26/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Porto vs Santa Clara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
4.42
6+ Goals
10%
23.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.16
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.9
X/1 EV+ ✗
29%
3.89
X/2
8%
10.15
X/X
11%
4.38
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
10%
9.2
2/X
8%
18.0
Value flag · X/1 at 3.89 — our 29% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.0pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Porto v Santa Clara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 21%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -13%
2.18/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.47
+29% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +35%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
346 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 72%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
16.7 Crosses 15.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.6

Porto vs Santa Clara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Santa Clara
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.04 xG 0.39
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
456 Passes 176
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
31 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
16.08.2024 Santa Clara Santa Clara 0-2 HT 0-2 Porto Porto POR
29.02.2024 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-2 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POK
15.04.2023 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 1-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
29.10.2022 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
04.04.2022 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 2-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
07.11.2021 Santa Clara Santa Clara 0-3 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR

Porto 1-1 Santa Clara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
1-1
AWAY Santa Clara
3.21 xG 0.04
78% Ball Possession 22%
21 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
541 Passes 110
87% Pass Accuracy 62%
32 Box Touches 7
31 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Porto vs Santa Clara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto and Santa Clara couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Porto at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Porto had 78% of the ball to Santa Clara's 22%, shots finished 21-2, expected goals 3.21 to 0.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Porto and 0.50 for Santa Clara.

What was the final score of Porto vs Santa Clara?

Porto 1-1 Santa Clara in the Portugal - Premier League on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Santa Clara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Porto 53%, draw 25%, Santa Clara 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Porto), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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