MKE Ankaragücü 1-2 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.75
Over 2.5
39%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.82
No
60%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.88
6+ Goals
9%
16.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 33% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.5
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
18%
4.5
X/2
8%
8.5
X/X
12%
4.37
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
10%
6.77
2/X
8%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
-0.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+0.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
53%
+7.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
47%
-7.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-11.4pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MKE Ankaragücü EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 26%
+8% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.19/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.26
+13% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 73%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
18.8 Crosses 17.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.17 xG 1.03
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
297 Passes 258
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2024 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-0 HT 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü T1L
27.02.2022 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-1 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü T1L
03.10.2021 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
31.01.2021 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-0 HT 0-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
13.09.2020 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 1-2 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
24.02.2019 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MKE Ankaragücü
1-2
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
1.93 xG 1.53
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
341 Passes 244
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MKE Ankaragücü vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK nicked a narrow win over MKE Ankaragücü 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was MKE Ankaragücü at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MKE Ankaragücü had 57% of the ball to Erzurumspor FK's 43%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.93 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MKE Ankaragücü and 1.00 for Erzurumspor FK.

What was the final score of MKE Ankaragücü vs Erzurumspor FK?

MKE Ankaragücü 1-2 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MKE Ankaragücü vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a MKE Ankaragücü win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split MKE Ankaragücü 49%, draw 27%, Erzurumspor FK 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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