Nakhon Pathom 1-3 Buriram United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
9.57
Draw
20%
5.71
Away Pick
64%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
Over
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
40%
4-5
22%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
2%
X/1
3%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
3%
2/2
51%
2/X
2%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Buriram United win — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
16%
Home Win
7%
+8.8pp
20%
Draw
14%
+5.9pp
64%
Away Win
79%
-14.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.3pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nakhon Pathom The Market 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Buriram United The Market 84%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
0.84/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/0.70
+10% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +150%
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
178 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 83%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
13.2 Crosses 20.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nakhon Pathom
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Buriram United
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.41 xG 1.72
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
212 Passes 448
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2024 Buriram United Buriram United 3-0 HT 1-0 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom TAY
04.05.2024 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom 0-2 HT 0-0 Buriram United Buriram United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nakhon Pathom
1-3
AWAY Buriram United
0.22 xG 1.98
42% Ball Possession 58%
3 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 8
286 Passes 408
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
3 Box Touches 19
3 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buriram United saw off Nakhon Pathom 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Buriram United as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Nakhon Pathom had 42% of the ball to Buriram United's 58%, shots finished 3-17, expected goals 0.22 to 1.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Buriram United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Nakhon Pathom and 2.50 for Buriram United.

What was the final score of Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?

Nakhon Pathom 1-3 Buriram United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Buriram United win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Nakhon Pathom 16%, draw 20%, Buriram United 64%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Buriram United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Buriram United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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