Tijuana 4-2 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 26 Feb 2025

📅26/02/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.41
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.72
6+ Goals
11%
7.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.7pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.3pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.78/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.39
+12% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
22.2 Crosses 17.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.74 xG 1.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
353 Passes 262
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.09.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
10.03.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-3 HT 2-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
01.07.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-3 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
28.01.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
03.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
06.02.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
4-2
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.19 xG 2.07
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 11
376 Passes 298
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 25
4 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana got the better of Pumas UNAM 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tijuana as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Tijuana had 53% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 47%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 1.19 to 2.07 — on chances, Pumas UNAM could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tijuana and 1.33 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Pumas UNAM?

Tijuana 4-2 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 42%, draw 24%, Pumas UNAM 34%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✓ Over 2.5
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