Mazatlan 1-0 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 26 Feb 2025

Mazatlan
1-0 HT 1-0
Monterrey
📅26/02/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Mazatlan vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
40%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.78
6+ Goals
8%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 32% vs market 28.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
24%
+11.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
40%
Away Win
49%
-9.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.1pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mazatlan v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 53%
+6% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.20/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.04
+9% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +0%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
264 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 82%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
17.5 Crosses 19.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Mazatlan vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Monterrey
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.22 xG 1.75
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
337 Passes 390
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.09.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
11.03.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 2-1 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
07.01.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 Monterrey Monterrey HAZ
15.07.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-3 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
22.04.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-2 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
04.09.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK

Mazatlan 1-0 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
1-0
AWAY Monterrey
1.60 xG 0.76
29% Ball Possession 71%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 8
158 Passes 474
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 29
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan nicked a narrow win over Monterrey 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Mazatlan found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mazatlan had 29% of the ball to Monterrey's 71%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 1.60 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mazatlan and 1.50 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Monterrey?

Mazatlan 1-0 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 35%, draw 25%, Monterrey 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Monterrey) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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