Polonya U21 0-1 Bulgaristan U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — European U21, 26 Mar 2024

📅26/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.91
Over 2.5
40%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.9
No
61%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.41
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.48
6+ Goals
8%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 33% vs market 23.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
26%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-6.3pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.9pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
48%
+11.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
52%
-11.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.0pp
61%
BTTS No
51%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonya U21 EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Bulgaristan U21 EU Bookmakers 20%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
2.34/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.25
+5% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +65%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonya U21
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Bulgaristan U21
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 2
13.10.2020 Polonya U21 Polonya U21 1-1 HT 0-1 Bulgaristan U21 Bulgaristan U21 U21
15.11.2019 Bulgaristan U21 Bulgaristan U21 3-0 HT 1-0 Polonya U21 Polonya U21 U21
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonya U21
0-1
AWAY Bulgaristan U21
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Polonya U21 vs Bulgaristan U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bulgaristan U21 nicked a narrow win over Polonya U21 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Polonya U21 at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Polonya U21 had 60% of the ball to Bulgaristan U21's 40%, shots finished 14-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bulgaristan U21 led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Polonya U21 and 2.00 for Bulgaristan U21.

What was the final score of Polonya U21 vs Bulgaristan U21?

Polonya U21 0-1 Bulgaristan U21 in the European U21 on 26/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonya U21 vs Bulgaristan U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonya U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Polonya U21 55%, draw 25%, Bulgaristan U21 20%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Polonya U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Polonya U21) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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