Tamworth 4-3 AFC Fylde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.38
Over 2.5
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
19%
2.67
6+ Goals
11%
6.78
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.8 — our 29% vs market 15.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.93
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
16%
4.32
X/2
6%
11.4
X/X
14%
6.71
2/1
8%
19.7
2/2
7%
8.38
2/X
8%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-6.8pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.9pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.7pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tamworth EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Fylde EU Bookmakers 21%
-33% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -16%
0.98/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.65
-49% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tamworth
1W-0D-1L
AWAY AFC Fylde
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Passes 0
4 Yellow Cards 4
24.09.2024 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 1-2 HT 0-0 Tamworth Tamworth İBSL
07.10.2014 Tamworth Tamworth 0-3 HT 0-1 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tamworth
4-3
AWAY AFC Fylde
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
1 Passes 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tamworth vs AFC Fylde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tamworth squeezed past AFC Fylde 4-3. It was 2-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tamworth as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Tamworth had 44% of the ball to AFC Fylde's 56%, shots finished 18-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tamworth and 2.00 for AFC Fylde.

What was the final score of Tamworth vs AFC Fylde?

Tamworth 4-3 AFC Fylde in the England - National League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tamworth vs AFC Fylde?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tamworth win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Tamworth 54%, draw 27%, AFC Fylde 19%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tamworth), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tamworth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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