Hemel Hempstead Town 1-4 Torquay United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
47%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.23
Over 2.5
46%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.3
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.81
6+ Goals
11%
7.93
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 30% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
20%
+7.1pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.3pp
47%
Away Win
59%
-11.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.8pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Torquay United EU Bookmakers 62%
+7% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.31/1.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/0.82
+15% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
214 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Torquay United
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
21.12.2024 Torquay United Torquay United 1-0 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
16.12.2023 Torquay United Torquay United 3-2 HT 2-2 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
23.09.2023 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 3-2 HT 1-0 Torquay United Torquay United İCON
24.01.2015 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Torquay United Torquay United İNFAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
1-4
AWAY Torquay United
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 26
1 Shots on Target 15
1 Corners 14
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hemel Hempstead Town vs Torquay United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Torquay United ran out comfortable winners over Hemel Hempstead Town 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Torquay United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Hemel Hempstead Town had 43% of the ball to Torquay United's 57%, shots finished 7-26.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Torquay United led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 2.00 for Torquay United.

What was the final score of Hemel Hempstead Town vs Torquay United?

Hemel Hempstead Town 1-4 Torquay United in the England - Conference on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Torquay United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Torquay United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hemel Hempstead Town 27%, draw 26%, Torquay United 47%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Torquay United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Torquay United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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