Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-0
Crystal Palace
İNP
1-0
HT 1-0
Crystal Palace
İNP
Crystal Palace 3-0 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics
Crystal Palace swept aside Aston Villa 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Crystal Palace found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Crystal Palace had 30% of the ball to Aston Villa's 70%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 1.79 to 1.01.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crystal Palace had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.33 for Aston Villa.
What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Crystal Palace 3-0 Aston Villa in the England - FA Cup on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 33%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 39%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.