Lyon 4-1 Rennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Apr 2025

Lyon
4-1 HT 3-0
Rennes
📅26/04/2025 · 🕒22:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lyon vs Rennes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.43
Over 2.5
62%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.56
No
41%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.1
2-3 Goals
38%
1.98
4-5 Goals
25%
2.68
6+ Goals
17%
6.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.05
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
21%
4.48
X/2 EV+ ✗
13%
10.35
X/X
8%
6.59
2/1
8%
19.55
2/2
11%
7.3
2/X
6%
15.6
Value flag · X/2 at 10.35 — our 13% vs market 6.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.8pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.0pp
31%
Away Win
21%
+9.7pp
38%
Under 2.5
38%
+0.5pp
62%
Over 2.5
62%
-0.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.3pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Rennes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Rennes EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -25%
1.95/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.60
+2% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
421 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 78%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.5 Crosses 15.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Lyon vs Rennes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Rennes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.32 xG 1.34
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
468 Passes 306
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.08.2024 Rennes Rennes 3-0 HT 2-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
26.01.2024 Lyon Lyon 2-3 HT 0-3 Rennes Rennes FR1
12.11.2023 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
09.04.2023 Lyon Lyon 3-1 HT 0-1 Rennes Rennes FR1
16.10.2022 Rennes Rennes 3-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
13.03.2022 Lyon Lyon 2-4 HT 0-3 Rennes Rennes FR1

Lyon 4-1 Rennes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
4-1
AWAY Rennes
1.88 xG 0.82
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
447 Passes 379
90% Pass Accuracy 88%
29 Box Touches 12
9 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Rennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon cruised past Rennes 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Lyon had 53% of the ball to Rennes's 47%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.88 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rennes led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lyon and 2.33 for Rennes.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Rennes?

Lyon 4-1 Rennes in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Rennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lyon 48%, draw 21%, Rennes 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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