Estrela 2-0 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.09
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
50%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.0
6+ Goals
10%
18.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
9.99
1/2
5%
26.0
1/X
8%
18.9
X/1
12%
11.2
X/2
19%
3.89
X/X
12%
4.92
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
26%
2.04
2/X
7%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
17%
+5.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
50%
Away Win
59%
-8.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.6pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 62%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -8%
1.08/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/0.90
-21% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +15%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
227 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 79%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.7
17.0 Crosses 18.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Porto
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.52 xG 1.21
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
232 Passes 433
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.12.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
17.02.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
15.09.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
2-0
AWAY Porto
2.43 xG 0.50
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 11
148 Passes 384
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 32
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela got the better of Porto 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Porto at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Estrela had 32% of the ball to Porto's 68%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.43 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Estrela and 1.67 for Porto.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Porto?

Estrela 2-0 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Estrela 23%, draw 27%, Porto 50%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Porto) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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