Ural 2-5 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.4pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.2pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.1pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ural EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 36%
+48% / +48% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.04
+90% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ural
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 1.39
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
286 Passes 283
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 2-1 HT 1-1 Ural Ural RUS1
06.05.2024 Ural Ural 2-1 HT 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
19.08.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-1 HT 0-0 Ural Ural RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ural
2-5
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ural vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baltika Kaliningrad cruised past Ural 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Baltika Kaliningrad found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ural had 49% of the ball to Baltika Kaliningrad's 51%, shots finished 7-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ural had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ural and 1.00 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of Ural vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Ural 2-5 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - FNL on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ural vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ural win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Ural 35%, draw 30%, Baltika Kaliningrad 35%. The final score 2-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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