Amorebieta 1-1 Sestao River — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+3.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.0pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amorebieta EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestao River EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.02/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.89
-5% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
6.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amorebieta
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Sestao River
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.01.2026 Sestao River Sestao River 1-2 HT 1-1 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS4
22.02.2025 Sestao River Sestao River 1-0 HT 0-0 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS3
30.11.2024 Amorebieta Amorebieta 2-0 HT 1-0 Sestao River Sestao River İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amorebieta
1-1
AWAY Sestao River
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Amorebieta vs Sestao River
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amorebieta and Sestao River couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sestao River at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Amorebieta had 49% of the ball to Sestao River's 51%, shots finished 10-15.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Amorebieta had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Amorebieta and 0.67 for Sestao River.

What was the final score of Amorebieta vs Sestao River?

Amorebieta 1-1 Sestao River in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amorebieta vs Sestao River?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sestao River win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Amorebieta 33%, draw 27%, Sestao River 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sestao River), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sestao River) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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