Valladolid 3-2 Villarreal II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.15
Over 2.5
43%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.21
2-3 Goals
46%
1.86
4-5 Goals
18%
3.01
6+ Goals
9%
9.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.21 — our 27% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.2
X/1
13%
3.53
X/2
11%
14.9
X/X
11%
6.71
2/1
11%
22.3
2/2
6%
11.75
2/X
6%
19.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-12.2pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.0pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
43%
+14.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
57%
-14.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.6pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valladolid EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 17%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.56/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.57
+16% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
387 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
24.7 Crosses 12.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valladolid
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Villarreal II
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.95 xG 1.17
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
432 Passes 213
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
30 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 1
18.12.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 1-0 HT 1-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
20.04.2012 Villarreal II Villarreal II 0-1 HT 0-1 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
19.11.2011 Valladolid Valladolid 2-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
29.01.2011 Villarreal II Villarreal II 2-0 HT 1-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS2
27.08.2010 Valladolid Valladolid 3-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valladolid
3-2
AWAY Villarreal II
1.62 xG 1.32
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
340 Passes 281
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valladolid vs Villarreal II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valladolid nicked a narrow win over Villarreal II 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Valladolid as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valladolid had 54% of the ball to Villarreal II's 46%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.62 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Valladolid had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Valladolid and 0.80 for Villarreal II.

What was the final score of Valladolid vs Villarreal II?

Valladolid 3-2 Villarreal II in the Spain - 2nd Division on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Villarreal II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 54%, draw 25%, Villarreal II 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valladolid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valladolid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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