Wil 1900 2-2 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 26 Jul 2024

Wil 1900
2-2 HT 2-0
Aarau
📅26/07/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2024/2025

Wil 1900 vs Aarau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.53
No
52%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
7.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.76 — our 26% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
61%
-12.7pp
52%
BTTS No
39%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wil 1900 v Aarau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wil 1900 EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.40/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/2.14
-6% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
331 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
20.1 Crosses 14.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Wil 1900 vs Aarau Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wil 1900
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Aarau
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.83 xG 1.10
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 Passes 344
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.05.2024 Aarau Aarau 0-4 HT 0-3 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 İSV2
23.02.2024 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 1-1 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
10.12.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-1 HT 1-0 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 İSV2
29.09.2023 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 0-2 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
05.05.2023 Aarau Aarau 0-0 HT 0-0 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 İSV2
17.03.2023 Wil 1900 Wil 1900 0-3 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2

Wil 1900 2-2 Aarau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wil 1900
2-2
AWAY Aarau
2.23 xG 1.59
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
384 Passes 224
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wil 1900 vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wil 1900 and Aarau shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Wil 1900 at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Wil 1900 had 61% of the ball to Aarau's 39%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.23 to 1.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Wil 1900 and 1.17 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Wil 1900 vs Aarau?

Wil 1900 2-2 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wil 1900 vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wil 1900 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Wil 1900 46%, draw 24%, Aarau 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Wil 1900), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wil 1900) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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