Nevezis 2-2 BFA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 26 Jul 2024

Nevezis
2-2 HT 1-1
BFA
📅26/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
36%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
4%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.4pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.2pp
36%
Away Win
28%
+7.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.9pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nevezis EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY BFA EU Bookmakers 32%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.70/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.99
+11% / +93% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nevezis
1W-2D-2L
AWAY BFA
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 BFA BFA 2-1 HT 2-1 Nevezis Nevezis LIT1
22.09.2023 Nevezis Nevezis 2-2 HT 1-1 BFA BFA LIT1
30.04.2023 BFA BFA 0-2 HT 0-1 Nevezis Nevezis LIT1
24.09.2022 BFA BFA 1-1 HT 1-1 Nevezis Nevezis LIT1
01.04.2022 Nevezis Nevezis 0-2 HT 0-0 BFA BFA LIT1
POST-MATCH Nevezis vs BFA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nevezis and BFA shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nevezis at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, BFA led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Nevezis and 1.40 for BFA.

What was the final score of Nevezis vs BFA?

Nevezis 2-2 BFA in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nevezis vs BFA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nevezis win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Nevezis 44%, draw 21%, BFA 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Nevezis), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nevezis) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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