BFA 2-1 Nevezis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 13 Apr 2024

BFA
2-1 HT 2-1
Nevezis
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Lithuania - 1st Division – 2024

BFA vs Nevezis Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+1.7pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.2pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

BFA v Nevezis — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFA EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Nevezis EU Bookmakers 42%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.70/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.27
+19% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
267 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

BFA vs Nevezis Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFA
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Nevezis
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.09.2023 Nevezis Nevezis 2-2 HT 1-1 BFA BFA LIT1
30.04.2023 BFA BFA 0-2 HT 0-1 Nevezis Nevezis LIT1
24.09.2022 BFA BFA 1-1 HT 1-1 Nevezis Nevezis LIT1
01.04.2022 Nevezis Nevezis 0-2 HT 0-0 BFA BFA LIT1
POST-MATCH BFA vs Nevezis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFA nicked a narrow win over Nevezis 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 35% — and on the day BFA made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for BFA and 1.25 for Nevezis.

What was the final score of BFA vs Nevezis?

BFA 2-1 Nevezis in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFA vs Nevezis?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFA win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split BFA 37%, draw 29%, Nevezis 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFA), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFA) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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