Garliava 1-2 Babrungas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.6pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.7pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.0pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Garliava EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Babrungas EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.54/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.23
+2% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Garliava
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Babrungas
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
29.07.2023 Garliava Garliava 3-4 Babrungas Babrungas LIT1
10.03.2023 Babrungas Babrungas 3-2 HT 3-0 Garliava Garliava LIT1
01.10.2022 Garliava Garliava 2-0 HT 1-0 Babrungas Babrungas LIT1
28.05.2022 Babrungas Babrungas 5-0 HT 4-0 Garliava Garliava LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Garliava
1-2
AWAY Babrungas
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Garliava vs Babrungas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Babrungas edged past Garliava 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 23% / 37%) promised a tight game; Babrungas found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Garliava had 58% of the ball to Babrungas's 42%, shots finished 16-8.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Babrungas led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Garliava and 3.00 for Babrungas.

What was the final score of Garliava vs Babrungas?

Garliava 1-2 Babrungas in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Garliava vs Babrungas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Garliava win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Garliava 40%, draw 23%, Babrungas 37%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Garliava) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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