Deportivo Alaves 2-1 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
36%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.02
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.42
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
16%
4.5
X/2
16%
8.32
X/X
8%
5.61
2/1
8%
21.8
2/2
12%
6.15
2/X
7%
15.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 35.0 — our 8% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
52%
-9.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.6pp
36%
Away Win
24%
+11.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.97/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.43/1.64
-43% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +101% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
2W-1D-3L
AWAY CD Castellon
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
03.05.2009 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-1 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
30.11.2008 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS2
29.03.2008 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-0 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
28.10.2007 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS2
25.03.2007 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS2
21.10.2006 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-0 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
2-1
AWAY CD Castellon
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 0
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves squeezed past CD Castellon 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Deportivo Alaves as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 55% of the ball to CD Castellon's 45%, shots finished 11-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Castellon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 0.83 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs CD Castellon?

Deportivo Alaves 2-1 CD Castellon in the Friendlies on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 42%, draw 22%, CD Castellon 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Alaves), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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