Ingolstadt 2-3 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Jul 2025

Ingolstadt
2-3 HT 1-2
Heidenheim
📅26/07/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2025/2026

Ingolstadt vs Heidenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
44%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.51
Over 2.5
44%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.49
No
54%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
5.21
2-3 Goals
37%
1.98
4-5 Goals
23%
2.58
6+ Goals
9%
6.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.21 — our 31% vs market 13.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
25%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
44%
Away Win
52%
-8.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
36%
+20.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
64%
-20.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
63%
-16.9pp
54%
BTTS No
37%
+16.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ingolstadt v Heidenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 56%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
1.04/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/0.08
-17% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
323 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 452 · 85%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 0.0

Ingolstadt vs Heidenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Heidenheim
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.57 xG 1.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
289 Passes 300
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.01.2022 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 1-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
31.07.2021 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-2 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
19.05.2019 Heidenheim Heidenheim 4-2 HT 2-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
16.12.2018 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
31.03.2018 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-2 HT 0-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
20.10.2017 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 3-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim edged past Ingolstadt 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Heidenheim as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidenheim led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ingolstadt and 1.67 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs Heidenheim?

Ingolstadt 2-3 Heidenheim in the Friendlies on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated an Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 31%, draw 25%, Heidenheim 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidenheim) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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