Lens 2-1 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Jul 2025

Lens
2-1 HT 1-0
Metz
📅26/07/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2025/2026

Lens vs Metz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
30%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.95
Over
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.84
No Pick
55%
1.84
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
29%
3.6
2-3
39%
1.86
4-5
23%
3.48
6+
9%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.6 — our 29% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.03
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.65
X/1
15%
4.07
X/2
10%
10.75
X/X
11%
5.59
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
14%
8.84
2/X
10%
17.6
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Lens v Metz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz The Market 21%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
0.29/0.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/1.26
-85% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -73% / +37%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
409 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 0.0

Lens vs Metz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Metz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.60 xG 0.86
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
455 Passes 262
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 9
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.04.2024 Metz Metz 2-1 HT 2-1 Lens Lens FR1
16.09.2023 Lens Lens 0-1 HT 0-1 Metz Metz FR1
13.03.2022 Metz Metz 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
24.10.2021 Lens Lens 4-1 HT 2-1 Metz Metz FR1
14.03.2021 Lens Lens 2-2 HT 2-1 Metz Metz FR1
19.12.2020 Metz Metz 2-0 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR1
REVIEW Lens vs Metz
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lens came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Metz 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lens as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The one blemish: no to both teams scoring (55%) never looked like landing.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Metz led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lens and 1.33 for Metz.

Lens vs Metz Result & Final Score

Lens 2-1 Metz in the Friendlies on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Lens vs Metz Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lens 43%, draw 27%, Metz 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lens) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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