Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 FC Gifu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Gifu EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -16%
1.43/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.42
+10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -11%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
176 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.3 Crosses 18.6
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FC Gifu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
226 Passes 382
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2025 FC Gifu FC Gifu 1-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
31.08.2024 FC Gifu FC Gifu 0-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
31.03.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Gifu FC Gifu JAP3
24.09.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Gifu FC Gifu JAP3
12.03.2023 FC Gifu FC Gifu 1-1 HT 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
15.10.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 0-1 FC Gifu FC Gifu JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-0
AWAY FC Gifu
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
286 Passes 407
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs FC Gifu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga squeezed past FC Gifu 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Matsumoto Yamaga as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 44% of the ball to FC Gifu's 56%, shots finished 11-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.83 for FC Gifu.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs FC Gifu?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 FC Gifu in the Japan - J3 League on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs FC Gifu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 41%, draw 27%, FC Gifu 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ BTTS Yes
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