Schalke 04 1-0 Greuther Fürth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.07
Over Pick
60%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.66
No
40%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
23%
3.83
2-3
36%
1.81
4-5
26%
3.04
6+
15%
9.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.37
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
12%
4.46
X/2
15%
8.36
X/X
9%
5.47
2/1
10%
21.6
2/2
10%
6.18
2/X
8%
14.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.6 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
+4.1pp
40%
BTTS No
44%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 28%
-7% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.56/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.59
+18% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.8 Crosses 15.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Schalke 04
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Greuther Fürth
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.03 xG 2.20
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
389 Passes 333
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 3-3 HT 2-1 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
26.10.2024 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 3-4 HT 1-3 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
19.05.2024 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-0 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
15.12.2023 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 2-2 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
02.02.2013 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 1-2 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL1
15.09.2012 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 0-2 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Schalke 04
1-0
AWAY Greuther Fürth
2.02 xG 0.41
59% Ball Possession 41%
25 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 6
383 Passes 248
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
55 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Schalke 04 nicked a narrow win over Greuther Fürth 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Schalke 04 as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Schalke 04 had 59% of the ball to Greuther Fürth's 41%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 2.02 to 0.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Schalke 04's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Greuther Fürth led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Schalke 04 and 2.17 for Greuther Fürth.

What was the final score of Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth?

Schalke 04 1-0 Greuther Fürth in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Schalke 04 45%, draw 24%, Greuther Fürth 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Schalke 04) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Schalke 04) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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