Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Schalke 04 v Greuther Fürth — Team-Based Signals
Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-0
Greuther Fürth
AL2
1-2
HT 0-0
Greuther Fürth
AL1
0-2
HT 0-0
Schalke 04
AL1
Schalke 04 1-0 Greuther Fürth — Actual Match Statistics
Schalke 04 nicked a narrow win over Greuther Fürth 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Schalke 04 as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Schalke 04 had 59% of the ball to Greuther Fürth's 41%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 2.02 to 0.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Schalke 04's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Greuther Fürth led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Schalke 04 and 2.17 for Greuther Fürth.
What was the final score of Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth?
Schalke 04 1-0 Greuther Fürth in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth?
Before kick-off our model rated a Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Schalke 04 45%, draw 24%, Greuther Fürth 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Schalke 04) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.