Northampton Town 3-0 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 26 Oct 2024

Northampton Town
3-0 HT 2-0
Crawley Town
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Northampton Town vs Crawley Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.9
Over Pick
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.42
2-3
39%
1.79
4-5
24%
3.47
6+
11%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.1
1/2
10%
32.5
1/X
9%
12.6
X/1
15%
4.97
X/2
13%
6.55
X/X
12%
4.55
2/1 ✗
11%
26.0
2/2
8%
4.57
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Northampton Town v Crawley Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.41/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.05
+10% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +76%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
276 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 66%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
16.4 Crosses 13.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Northampton Town vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.32 xG 1.08
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
234 Passes 214
64% Pass Accuracy 61%
19 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.03.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
16.08.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-3 HT 1-2 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
08.01.2022 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
28.08.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
26.12.2019 Crawley Town Crawley Town 4-0 HT 1-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
21.09.2019 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-2 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2

Northampton Town 3-0 Crawley Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
3-0
AWAY Crawley Town
1.17 xG 0.65
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 9
175 Passes 413
67% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Northampton Town vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town ran out comfortable winners over Crawley Town 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Northampton Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Northampton Town had 35% of the ball to Crawley Town's 65%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.17 to 0.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Northampton Town and 1.50 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Northampton Town vs Crawley Town?

Northampton Town 3-0 Crawley Town in the England - 1st Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northampton Town vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Northampton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 42%, draw 27%, Crawley Town 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Northampton Town), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Northampton Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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