Morecambe 2-5 Chesterfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.93
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.15
6+ Goals
12%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
23.15
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
8%
7.38
X/2
17%
4.57
X/X
17%
5.19
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.64
2/X
5%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.15 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
28%
-0.5pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.6pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 51%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.42/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.29/2.09
+13% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +23%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
246 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 75%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
18.6 Crosses 20.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Chesterfield
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
10.04.2018 Morecambe Morecambe 2-2 HT 2-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
14.10.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 0-2 HT 0-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
25.03.2014 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-0 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
05.10.2013 Morecambe Morecambe 4-3 HT 0-3 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
29.12.2012 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-1 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
02.10.2012 Morecambe Morecambe 2-0 HT 1-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
2-5
AWAY Chesterfield
0.65 xG 1.12
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
194 Passes 277
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 17
30 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Chesterfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield swept aside Morecambe 5-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Chesterfield as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Morecambe had 45% of the ball to Chesterfield's 55%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 0.65 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Morecambe had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Morecambe and 1.17 for Chesterfield.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Chesterfield?

Morecambe 2-5 Chesterfield in the England - 2nd Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Chesterfield?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 28%, draw 30%, Chesterfield 43%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chesterfield), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chesterfield) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
26 Oct 2024
14:30 Colchester vs Salford City Analysis →
17:00 Accrington Stanley vs Walsall Analysis →
17:00 Bromley vs Barrow Analysis →
17:00 Grimsby Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Analysis →
17:00 Swindon Town vs Gillingham Analysis →
17:00 Carlisle United vs Cheltenham Town Analysis →