Swindon Town 1-1 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.71
Over 2.5
37%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.13
6+ Goals
9%
19.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 36% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.74
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
13%
4.3
X/2
12%
7.3
X/X
16%
4.3
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
11%
5.77
2/X
6%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.2pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.1pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
55%
+8.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
45%
-8.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.8pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -2%
1.37/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.16
+2% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
291 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 63%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
20.4 Crosses 15.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Gillingham
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.45 xG 1.45
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
421 Passes 152
80% Pass Accuracy 60%
27 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2024 Gillingham Gillingham 2-2 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
24.10.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
28.01.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-3 HT 1-3 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
03.09.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
13.03.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
05.12.2020 Gillingham Gillingham 2-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
1-1
AWAY Gillingham
0.36 xG 1.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
283 Passes 268
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
7 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town and Gillingham shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Swindon Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Swindon Town had 51% of the ball to Gillingham's 49%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.36 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Swindon Town and 1.83 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Gillingham?

Swindon Town 1-1 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 42%, draw 30%, Gillingham 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Swindon Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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