Gillingham 2-2 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Feb 2024

📅13/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.56
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.31
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.39
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
18%
4.19
X/2
13%
8.13
X/X
12%
5.0
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
10%
6.03
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.7pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 28%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -13%
1.69/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.46
-17% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
290 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 72%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
26.6 Crosses 15.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Swindon Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.23 xG 1.54
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
135 Passes 422
59% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.10.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
28.01.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-3 HT 1-3 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
03.09.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
13.03.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
05.12.2020 Gillingham Gillingham 2-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
28.02.2017 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-1 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
2-2
AWAY Swindon Town
2.55 xG 0.97
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 6
236 Passes 416
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham and Swindon Town shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gillingham at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gillingham had 41% of the ball to Swindon Town's 59%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 2.55 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gillingham and 1.17 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Swindon Town?

Gillingham 2-2 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 13/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 46%, draw 25%, Swindon Town 29%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gillingham)
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