Newport County 1-3 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Feb 2024

Newport County
1-3 HT 0-2
Notts County
📅13/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Newport County vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.18
Over 2.5
59%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.55
No
40%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.25
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
2.95
6+ Goals
16%
8.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.35
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
11%
5.46
X/2
14%
5.79
X/X
14%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.6
2/2
12%
3.63
2/X
8%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.6 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
+0.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
42%
-1.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
58%
+1.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.6pp
40%
BTTS No
40%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.33/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/1.80
+5% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
297 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 74%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
22.0 Crosses 20.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Newport County vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Notts County
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.83 xG 2.32
49% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
192 Passes 495
66% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
24.10.2023 Notts County Notts County 3-0 HT 2-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
19.02.2019 Notts County Notts County 1-4 HT 1-3 Newport County Newport County İN2
21.08.2018 Newport County Newport County 3-2 HT 2-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
17.02.2018 Newport County Newport County 0-0 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
28.10.2017 Notts County Notts County 3-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
06.05.2017 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2

Newport County 1-3 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-3
AWAY Notts County
1.46 xG 2.76
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 6
260 Passes 473
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 21
31 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County beat Newport County 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Notts County made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Newport County had 40% of the ball to Notts County's 60%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.46 to 2.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Newport County and 1.67 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Notts County?

Newport County 1-3 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 13/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport County win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Newport County 39%, draw 28%, Notts County 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newport County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newport County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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