Carlisle United 0-1 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2024

Carlisle United
0-1 HT 0-1
Cheltenham Town
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Carlisle United vs Cheltenham Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.54
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 30% vs market 22.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.3
X/1
13%
4.48
X/2
9%
7.49
X/X
9%
4.86
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
15%
5.42
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Cheltenham Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.31/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.00
-1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
213 · 58% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 71%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
19.2 Crosses 17.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Carlisle United vs Cheltenham Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.85 xG 1.26
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
238 Passes 190
62% Pass Accuracy 58%
18 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.04.2024 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
23.12.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
27.04.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
14.11.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 1-2 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
11.02.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
20.08.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2

Carlisle United 0-1 Cheltenham Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
0-1
AWAY Cheltenham Town
0.73 xG 1.03
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
290 Passes 137
66% Pass Accuracy 49%
17 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town nicked a narrow win over Carlisle United 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Carlisle United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 60% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 40%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.73 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cheltenham Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Carlisle United and 1.17 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Cheltenham Town?

Carlisle United 0-1 Cheltenham Town in the England - 2nd Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 45%, draw 25%, Cheltenham Town 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Carlisle United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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