Port Vale 3-2 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.48
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.8
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.22
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
13%
4.58
X/2
9%
6.29
X/X
17%
3.88
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
16%
5.03
2/X
6%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.35/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/0.96
-6% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +43%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
239 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 213 · 62%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.8 Crosses 18.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
01.04.2017 Port Vale Port Vale 2-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
17.12.2016 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 4-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
05.02.2013 Port Vale Port Vale 3-0 HT 2-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
24.01.2013 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-2 HT 2-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
14.01.2012 Port Vale Port Vale 1-2 HT 1-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
03.09.2011 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 3-2 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
3-2
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
2.76 xG 1.64
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
204 Passes 257
67% Pass Accuracy 69%
16 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 31
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Vale nicked a narrow win over AFC Wimbledon 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Port Vale found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Port Vale had 43% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 57%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 2.76 to 1.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AFC Wimbledon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Port Vale and 1.83 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?

Port Vale 3-2 AFC Wimbledon in the England - 2nd Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 40%, draw 29%, AFC Wimbledon 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Port Vale) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Port Vale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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