AFC Totton 1-0 Dorchester Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.07
Over 2.5
43%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.61
No
56%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
4.0
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.11
6+ Goals
7%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 34% vs market 19.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.4pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Totton EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Dorchester Town EU Bookmakers 29%
+41% / +41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-53% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
298 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Totton
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Dorchester Town
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
14.09.2024 Dorchester Town Dorchester Town 3-2 HT 0-1 AFC Totton AFC Totton İNGNLP
28.02.2024 AFC Totton AFC Totton 4-4 Dorchester Town Dorchester Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH AFC Totton vs Dorchester Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Totton squeezed past Dorchester Town 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AFC Totton as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Dorchester Town led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for AFC Totton and 3.50 for Dorchester Town.

What was the final score of AFC Totton vs Dorchester Town?

AFC Totton 1-0 Dorchester Town in the England - FA Cup on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Totton vs Dorchester Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Totton win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AFC Totton 44%, draw 28%, Dorchester Town 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Totton), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AFC Totton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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