Stuttgart 2-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Oct 2024

Stuttgart
2-1 HT 1-0
Holstein Kiel
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.25
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
19%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
3.17
Over 2.5
63%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
8.34
2-3 Goals
36%
2.35
4-5 Goals
32%
2.38
6+ Goals
14%
4.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.36
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
25.5
X/1
17%
3.7
X/2
9%
24.45
X/X
8%
11.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.1
2/2
5%
16.15
2/X
4%
24.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.1 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
76%
-12.3pp
18%
Draw
15%
+3.2pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+9.0pp
37%
Under 2.5
28%
+8.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
72%
-8.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.1pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stuttgart v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 12%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.30/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/2.77
-7% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +113% / -5%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
481 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
32.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
21.5 Crosses 13.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.10 xG 1.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
431 Passes 246
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
40 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.05.2020 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-2 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL2
20.10.2019 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-1 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
08.08.2015 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-2 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AFK

Stuttgart 2-1 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
2-1
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.63 xG 0.51
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
467 Passes 298
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart nicked a narrow win over Holstein Kiel 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Stuttgart as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Stuttgart had 58% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 42%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.63 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stuttgart and 1.67 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?

Stuttgart 2-1 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 64%, draw 18%, Holstein Kiel 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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