Augsburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Oct 2024

Augsburg
2-1 HT 1-1
Borussia Dortmund
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
40%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.98
4-5 Goals
26%
2.69
6+ Goals
12%
6.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.65
1/2
7%
20.35
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
12%
8.7
X/2
12%
4.52
X/X
11%
6.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.29
2/X
9%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
25%
+9.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
40%
Away Win
52%
-12.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.7pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 56%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +6%
1.14/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.13
-10% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 435 · 82%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
17.3 Crosses 14.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.33 xG 2.81
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
229 Passes 513
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 36
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.05.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-1 HT 4-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
16.12.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
21.05.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 0-3 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
22.01.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-3 HT 2-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
27.02.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
02.10.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 HT 1-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1

Augsburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
2-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.55 xG 0.99
24% Ball Possession 76%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
154 Passes 637
69% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 22
6 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg edged past Borussia Dortmund 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Augsburg found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Augsburg had 24% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 76%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.55 to 0.99 — on chances, Borussia Dortmund could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Augsburg and 2.67 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Augsburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 34%, draw 26%, Borussia Dortmund 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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