RB Leipzig 3-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 27% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.33
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
21%
4.26
X/2
8%
8.48
X/X
13%
5.54
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
12%
6.02
2/X
5%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
-1.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.5pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.17/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.66
+33% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
16.2 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Freiburg
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.23 xG 0.96
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
436 Passes 319
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-4 HT 0-3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
12.11.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
06.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 0-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
02.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-5 HT 0-4 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
09.11.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
21.05.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
3-1
AWAY Freiburg
1.84 xG 1.73
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
334 Passes 473
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig saw off Freiburg 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 43% of the ball to Freiburg's 57%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.84 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for RB Leipzig and 0.83 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Freiburg?

RB Leipzig 3-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 51%, draw 24%, Freiburg 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ BTTS No
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