Werder Bremen 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Oct 2024

Werder Bremen
2-2 HT 0-1
Bayer Leverkusen
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.09
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
56%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.63
Over 2.5
60%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.19
2-3 Goals
39%
2.09
4-5 Goals
29%
2.55
6+ Goals
14%
5.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
9.09
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
19.0
1/X
6%
17.35
X/1
7%
13.6
X/2
13%
3.88
X/X
10%
7.75
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
34%
1.71
2/X
6%
17.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.0 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
17%
+6.0pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.4pp
56%
Away Win
64%
-8.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
34%
+5.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
66%
-5.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.5pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 69%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +23%
0.91/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/0.92
-31% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +42%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
289 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 503 · 85%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.5
16.8 Crosses 17.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7

Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.96 xG 1.47
42% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
336 Passes 516
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
25.11.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-3 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
12.03.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-3 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.09.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
08.05.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
09.01.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1

Werder Bremen 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
2-2
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
375 Passes 521
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bayer Leverkusen at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 43% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 57%, shots finished 13-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Werder Bremen and 2.17 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Werder Bremen 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 23%, draw 22%, Bayer Leverkusen 56%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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