Verl 1-1 Sandhausen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.17
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
17%
5.28
X/2
12%
6.21
X/X
10%
5.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.45
2/2
13%
3.98
2/X
5%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.8pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sandhausen EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.65/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.29
+9% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.0 Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Sandhausen
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Verl Verl 4-4 HT 1-2 Sandhausen Sandhausen AL3
22.10.2023 Sandhausen Sandhausen 2-2 HT 1-1 Verl Verl AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
1-1
AWAY Sandhausen
43% Ball Possession 57%
3 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
320 Passes 442
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
8 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Verl vs Sandhausen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Verl and Sandhausen shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Verl at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Verl had 43% of the ball to Sandhausen's 57%, shots finished 3-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Verl and 3.00 for Sandhausen.

What was the final score of Verl vs Sandhausen?

Verl 1-1 Sandhausen in the Germany - 3rd Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs Sandhausen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Verl 44%, draw 23%, Sandhausen 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Verl), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Verl) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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