Avai 3-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 26 Oct 2024

Avai
3-0 HT 2-0
Vila Nova
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Avai vs Vila Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.54
Over 2.5
34%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.1
6+ Goals
7%
31.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.37 — our 40% vs market 35.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.1pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.6pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.5pp
66%
Under 2.5
61%
+5.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
39%
-5.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.5pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Avai v Vila Nova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avai EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -5%
1.06/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.06
-10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
21.5 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Avai vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avai
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.92 xG 1.27
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
374 Passes 297
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.07.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 0-1 Avai Avai BR2
13.08.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 0-1 Avai Avai BR2
04.05.2023 Avai Avai 0-3 HT 0-2 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
25.08.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2
07.06.2021 Avai Avai 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
08.08.2018 Avai Avai 1-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2

Avai 3-0 Vila Nova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avai
3-0
AWAY Vila Nova
2.15 xG 0.70
35% Ball Possession 65%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
229 Passes 479
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avai vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avai ran out comfortable winners over Vila Nova 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 29% — and on the day Avai made the difference. On goals, no to both teams scoring (61%) landed while under 2.5 goals (66%) missed.

On the day, Avai had 35% of the ball to Vila Nova's 65%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.15 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avai and 1.33 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Avai vs Vila Nova?

Avai 3-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avai vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avai win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avai 39%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 29%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avai), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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