Ceara 2-1 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 26 Oct 2024

Ceara
2-1 HT 1-0
Paysandu
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Ceara vs Paysandu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.62
6+ Goals
12%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 28% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-10.9pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.8pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceara v Paysandu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 18%
-2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.34/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.04
+15% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
22.5 Crosses 17.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

Ceara vs Paysandu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Paysandu
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.63 xG 1.06
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
291 Passes 256
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.07.2024 Paysandu Paysandu 2-1 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BR2
15.11.2017 Ceara Ceara 2-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
29.07.2017 Paysandu Paysandu 1-2 HT 0-1 Ceara Ceara BR2
21.08.2016 Paysandu Paysandu 2-0 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
14.05.2016 Ceara Ceara 2-2 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
02.09.2015 Ceara Ceara 0-0 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2

Ceara 2-1 Paysandu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
2-1
AWAY Paysandu
1.36 xG 0.13
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
326 Passes 366
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 9
35 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara squeezed past Paysandu 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ceara as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Ceara had 47% of the ball to Paysandu's 53%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.36 to 0.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ceara's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ceara and 1.17 for Paysandu.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Paysandu?

Ceara 2-1 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Ceara 52%, draw 25%, Paysandu 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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