Libertad 1-2 Sportivo Ameliano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.45
Over 2.5
42%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.2pp
25%
Draw
30%
-5.9pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
65%
-7.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
35%
+7.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.9pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.71/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.41
+39% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.0
Crosses 28.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.09 xG 0.37
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
420 Passes 180
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.08.2024 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad CSA
20.08.2024 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
16.08.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano CSA
26.05.2024 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
12.03.2024 Libertad Libertad 4-1 HT 2-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
21.10.2023 Libertad Libertad 3-0 HT 2-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-2
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
56% Ball Possession 44%
6 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Sportivo Ameliano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sportivo Ameliano nicked a narrow win over Libertad 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 56% of the ball to Sportivo Ameliano's 44%, shots finished 6-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Libertad and 0.33 for Sportivo Ameliano.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Libertad 1-2 Sportivo Ameliano in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Libertad 44%, draw 25%, Sportivo Ameliano 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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