Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.2
6+ Goals
12%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.67
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1 EV+ ✗
22%
4.76
X/2
7%
7.6
X/X
12%
5.03
2/1
8%
23.1
2/2
13%
5.49
2/X
7%
13.85
Value flag · X/1 at 4.76 — our 22% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
48%
+1.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.3pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 30%
-11% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +15%
1.80/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.48
+16% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
18.6 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Freiburg
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.12 xG 1.01
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
544 Passes 273
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
35 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2025 Freiburg Freiburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
21.12.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
17.03.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 2-3 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
29.10.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
26.02.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
03.09.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-0
AWAY Freiburg
1.71 xG 0.62
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
708 Passes 270
93% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen saw off Freiburg 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 69% of the ball to Freiburg's 31%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.71 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.67 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 50%, draw 25%, Freiburg 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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