Stuttgart 2-1 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+0.9pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.84/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.74
+24% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
17.4 Crosses 17.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.02 xG 1.58
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
463 Passes 290
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.01.2025 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
31.08.2024 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-3 HT 2-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
11.02.2024 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-1 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.09.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-3 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
21.05.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-4 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
21.01.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
2-1
AWAY Mainz 05
1.94 xG 1.39
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
390 Passes 229
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart squeezed past Mainz 05 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Stuttgart as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Stuttgart had 59% of the ball to Mainz 05's 41%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.94 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Stuttgart and 1.50 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Mainz 05?

Stuttgart 2-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 48%, draw 22%, Mainz 05 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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