Stuttgart 3-3 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 31 Aug 2024

Stuttgart
3-3 HT 2-1
Mainz 05
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Stuttgart vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
8.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.05
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.75
X/1
18%
4.07
X/2
7%
10.15
X/X
12%
6.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.6
2/2
12%
7.16
2/X
7%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.3pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stuttgart v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.97/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.70
+9% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +6%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
429 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 72%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.4 Crosses 14.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Stuttgart vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.36 xG 1.11
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
432 Passes 323
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.02.2024 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-1 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.09.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-3 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
21.05.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-4 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
21.01.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.04.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
26.11.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Stuttgart 3-3 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
3-3
AWAY Mainz 05
3.85 xG 2.26
64% Ball Possession 36%
28 Total Shots 11
12 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 2
433 Passes 223
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 13
32 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart and Mainz 05 couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Stuttgart at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Stuttgart had 64% of the ball to Mainz 05's 36%, shots finished 28-11, expected goals 3.85 to 2.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Stuttgart and 0.83 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Mainz 05?

Stuttgart 3-3 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 52%, draw 24%, Mainz 05 23%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stuttgart) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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