Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 31 Aug 2024

Bayer Leverkusen
2-3 HT 2-1
RB Leipzig
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.61
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.63
6+ Goals
13%
6.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.03
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
18%
4.21
X/2
8%
10.1
X/X
13%
6.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.45
2/2
10%
6.68
2/X
6%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.45 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-5.8pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.4pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 25%
-12% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.85/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.46
-11% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
21.4 Crosses 13.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4W-0D-2L
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.16 xG 1.40
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
405 Passes 480
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.01.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-3 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.08.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
23.04.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
29.10.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.04.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
28.11.2021 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-3 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 RB Leipzig — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-3
AWAY RB Leipzig
2.24 xG 1.14
63% Ball Possession 37%
26 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
18 Corners 2
501 Passes 292
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
56 Box Touches 13
33 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig nicked a narrow win over Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Bayer Leverkusen at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 63% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 37%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 2.24 to 1.14 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bayer Leverkusen.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.33 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 51%, draw 24%, RB Leipzig 25%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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