Montedio Yamagata 2-2 Omiya Ardija — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
2.91
6+ Goals
12%
8.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.5pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -17%
1.43/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/0.98
+23% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.4 Crosses 16.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Omiya Ardija
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
388 Passes 322
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2025 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 2-1 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
03.09.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-1 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
08.04.2023 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 2-1 HT 1-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
05.10.2022 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-1 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
23.04.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 2-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
14.11.2021 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-2 HT 1-2 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2-2
AWAY Omiya Ardija
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
192 Passes 318
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Omiya Ardija
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata and Omiya Ardija shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 42% of the ball to Omiya Ardija's 58%, shots finished 10-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Omiya Ardija led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 1.33 for Omiya Ardija.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Omiya Ardija?

Montedio Yamagata 2-2 Omiya Ardija in the Japan - J2 League on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Omiya Ardija?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montedio Yamagata win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 39%, draw 24%, Omiya Ardija 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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