Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.32
2-3 Goals
36%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
12.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.52
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
15%
4.59
X/2
9%
8.2
X/X
10%
4.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.55
2/2
10%
6.19
2/X
6%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.55 — our 11% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-0.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.0pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 28%
-11% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.29/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.89
-27% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 78%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
21.4 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.83 xG 0.69
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
306 Passes 349
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2025 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-1 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
23.08.2024 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-2 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
28.04.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 4-0 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
15.10.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-3 HT 0-2 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
21.05.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-0 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
04.12.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-1 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
2-1
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.17 xG 0.57
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
246 Passes 347
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa edged past Lechia Gdansk 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 42% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 58%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.17 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 0.83 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?

Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 49%, draw 23%, Lechia Gdansk 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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